HistoryLatest2026-04-22 10:51:392026-04-21 17:18:332026-04-21 16:50:002026-04-21 16:28:012026-04-21 15:36:38
Coverage universe

Pipeline console

Point-in-time view, movement history, and click-through thesis buildout from the canonical markdown files.
Updated 2026-04-22 10:51:39
1. Intake
Raw scavenged leads, including kills and source-noted names.
2. Queue
Live backlog with explicit rank, status, and next action.
3. Underwrite
Where thesis buildout, scorecards, and deeper analysis live.
4. Pitch book
Only names with developed judgment, triggers, and disposition.
Opportunities tracked
36
QUEUED: 2, FIRST_PASS: 4, DEFERRED: 1, REJECTED: 5, INTAKE: 24
Live queue
5
FIRST_PASS: 4, DEFERRED: 1
Intake
32
SOURCE_NOTED: 16, QUEUED: 8, DISCARDED: 8
Movement events
49
Derived from intake, queue, pitch, and research artifacts

Full pipeline by stage

Every tracked opportunity, grouped by current stage
QUEUED2
FROG · JFrog
Understandable business and clear claim, but need to check stock comp and true cash quality.
WMS · Advanced Drainage Systems
Holder-cluster lead only. Needs real primary-source work before any opinion.
FIRST_PASS4
CAM.L · Camellia Plc
Hidden agricultural holding with fresh governance reset, real asset sales, and excess cash may be trading at a material discount to underlying value if capital returns become explicit.
rank 1
HURC · Hurco Companies, Inc.
Net-current-asset support may be real even if the source overstated the hidden-real-estate angle, making this a live cyclical asset-backing test rather than a clean compounder.
rank 2
OTB.L · On the Beach Group plc
Market may be over-discounting a temporary geopolitical demand shock in a net-cash, asset-light UK online travel platform with strong share gains and buyback capacity.
rank 3
MCCK · Mestek, Inc.
Illiquid HVAC manufacturer with an odd embedded commodities portfolio and family control looks weird enough that sum-of-parts or governance friction could create a real dislocation.
rank 4
DEFERRED1
5915.T · Komaihaltec Inc.
Deep-value asset framing may be overstating realizable value, but the balance-sheet support and explicit downside/risk framing are concrete enough to deserve a real first pass.
rank 5
REJECTED5
7734.T · Riken Keiki Co., Ltd.
Real business, but not a clear value-funnel mispricing. Company IR shows FY2025 net sales of about JPY 49.0bn, operating profit of about JPY 10.6bn, net income of about JPY 8.0bn, year-end cash of about JPY 19.0bn, and equity ratio of about 83.5%, with 9M FY2026 sales up about 13.8% and operating profit up about 4.8%. The problem is price, not quality: Yahoo chart data showed the stock around JPY 3,380, which implies roughly ~1.9x book on FY2025 net assets per share of JPY 1,787 and about ~19.6x FY2025 EPS of JPY 172. Even after giving credit for the net cash, this still looks more like a deservedly premium niche industrial than a broken-expectations value setup.
CCLD · CareCloud, Inc.
The adjusted EBITDA story held up better than expected, but the capital structure did not. SEC companyfacts show 2025 revenue of about $120.5m, operating income of about $11.3m, net income of about $10.8m, operating cash flow of about $28.6m, and low reported SBC of about $0.45m. Management reported adjusted EBITDA of about $27.5m and adjusted net income of about $14.4m, with part of the Q4 GAAP drag tied to amortization and integration costs from the Medsphere acquisition. But diluted shares jumped to about 38.0m from about 16.1m the year before, and the company then put in place a new ATM facility for up to $60m in common stock on 2026-04-13. That is too much dilution/financing overhang for this funnel, especially for a micro-cap already trading around a ~$136m market cap.
PLOW · Douglas Dynamics
Good niche business, but current setup looks more like a decent weather-sensitive industrial than a clearly mispriced value idea. After the rebound, valuation appears fair-to-full relative to cyclicality, acquisition integration risk, and still-lumpy cash earnings.
SPT · Sprout Social
Revenue growth remains real, but the apparent cheapness is flattered by stock-based compensation and dilution. SEC companyfacts show 2025 revenue of about $457.5m, operating loss of about $43.5m, net loss of about $43.3m, share-based compensation of about $78.7m, and diluted shares up to about 58.6m. Even if the visible VIC stub implied only ~1.3x sales on a ~$600m market cap, that is not clearly cheap enough for this funnel once normalized for heavy SBC and persistent GAAP losses.
VIRT · Virtu Financial
Quality franchise with real technology and buyback support, but the current setup does not look mispriced enough for the funnel. At roughly ~9.6x TTM earnings, ~1.2x sales, and ~3.8x book after a sharp rerating, upside appears too dependent on sustaining favorable market activity while leverage remains high and earnings quality stays cyclical.
INTAKE24
002380.SZ · Nanjing Sciyon Wisdom Technology Group Co., Ltd.
No summary yet
300595.SZ · Autek China Inc.
No summary yet
3836.T · Avant Group Corporation
No summary yet
4194.T · Visional, Inc.
No summary yet
8697.T · Japan Exchange Group, Inc.
No summary yet
AAGIY · AIA Group Ltd
No summary yet
ABT · Abbott Laboratories
No summary yet
ADP · Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
No summary yet
ALGT · Allegiant Travel Company
No summary yet
ALLY · Ally Financial Inc.
No summary yet
AMKR · Amkor Technology, Inc.
No summary yet
AMZN · Amazon.com, Inc.
No summary yet
BAX · Baxter International Inc.
No summary yet
BN · Brookfield Corporation
No summary yet
CERT · Certara
No summary yet
CRM · Salesforce, Inc.
No summary yet
CROX · Crocs, Inc.
No summary yet
CTVA · Corteva, Inc.
No summary yet
KMB / KVUE · Kimberly-Clark / Kenvue merger
No summary yet
META · Meta Platforms, Inc.
No summary yet
MRP · Millrose Properties Inc.
No summary yet
PRDO · Perdoceo Education
No summary yet
WOOD basket · North American wood products
No summary yet
WTW · Willis Towers Watson plc
No summary yet

Recent movement

In, out, promoted, rejected, parked, documented
WTW2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Baupost and Harris both added meaningfully in the same quarter, which is exactly the kind of multi-manager overlap the 13F engine is supposed to surface.
OTB.L2026-04-21
QueueFIRST_PASS
quantify exposure to affected Eastern Mediterranean routes and haircut FY2026 earnings to see whether ~9.6x adj EPS / ~4.7x EV-EBITDA is actually cheap enough
OTB.L2026-04-21
Document: 2026 04 21 initialOTB.L
coverage-universe/companies/OTB.L/first-pass/2026-04-21_initial.md
META2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Pershing opened an 11.37% position, which is too large to ignore and automatically clears the bar for a live conviction-change lead.
MCCK2026-04-21
QueueFIRST_PASS
separate commodity-trading earnings from the operating HVAC business and decide whether the asset base is actually realizable for minority holders
MCCK2026-04-21
Document: 2026 04 21 initialMCCK
coverage-universe/companies/MCCK/first-pass/2026-04-21_initial.md
HURC2026-04-21
QueueFIRST_PASS
pressure-test inventory quality, because the apparent ~0.69x NCAV discount disappears fast under harder haircuts
HURC2026-04-21
Document: 2026 04 21 initialHURC
coverage-universe/companies/HURC/first-pass/2026-04-21_initial.md
CTVA2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Harris opened a filtered Tier 2 new position above the weight floor, which is exactly the kind of diversified-manager entry the engine is supposed to catch.
CROX2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Himalaya opened a new position, which is automatically interesting given Li Lu's concentrated roster and low turnover.
CAM.L2026-04-21
QueueFIRST_PASS
determine how much of the roughly £155m net liquid financial asset backing is truly surplus versus required by the operating footprint, then force a promote / reject / defer decision
CAM.L2026-04-21
Document: 2026 04 21 initialCAM.L
coverage-universe/companies/CAM.L/first-pass/2026-04-21_initial.md
BN2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Pershing added 50% and Akre added 40% in the same quarter, which is the kind of cross-manager reinforcement worth preserving even without a fresh new-position flag.
AMZN2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Baupost opened a large new position while Pershing added aggressively in the same quarter, with Berkshire simultaneously fully exiting, which makes this a real high-signal disagreement rather than ordinary 13F noise.
AMKR2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Packaging-and-test exposure plus AI/advanced-packaging framing could matter if the market is still anchoring to a cyclical trough.
ALLY2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Berkshire opened a new position, which matters even at a small visible weight because new Berkshire lines are rare and worth triaging.
ADP2026-04-21
IntakeDISCARDED
High-quality payroll compounder showed up with steady-growth framing, but that is exactly the sort of thing everyone with a spreadsheet already knows.
7734.T2026-04-21
Resolved queueREJECTED
Real business, but not a clear value-funnel mispricing. Company IR shows FY2025 net sales of about JPY 49.0bn, operating profit of about JPY 10.6bn, net income of about JPY 8.0bn, year-end cash of about JPY 19.0bn, and equity ratio of about 83.5%, with 9M FY2026 sales up about 13.8% and operating profit up about 4.8%. The problem is price, not quality: Yahoo chart data showed the stock around JPY 3,380, which implies roughly ~1.9x book on FY2025 net assets per share of JPY 1,787 and about ~19.6x FY2025 EPS of JPY 172. Even after giving credit for the net cash, this still looks more like a deservedly premium niche industrial than a broken-expectations value setup.
7734.T2026-04-21
IntakeQUEUED
Japanese gas-detection niche with service/maintenance mix, clean balance sheet, and a still-reasonable multiple looked like the only top-card name with actual value-funnel potential instead of generic quality growth.
4194.T2026-04-21
IntakeDISCARDED
Japan recruiting-platform story had decent visible economics, but the setup looked like another straightforward growth rerating argument.
3836.T2026-04-21
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Japanese consolidation/accounting software with recurring revenue and governance tailwinds looked economically attractive on the stub.
300595.SZ2026-04-21
IntakeDISCARDED
Card showed healthcare optics in company info and industrial motor language in the summary, which is not a great sign before the work even starts.
002380.SZ2026-04-21
IntakeDISCARDED
Smart-grid software angle was understandable, but the visible multiples already looked too rich for a first-pass value funnel.
WOOD basket2026-04-20
IntakeSOURCE_NOTED
Deep cyclical industry writeup may surface survivor names with strong upcycle convexity after a brutal downcycle

Recent funnel commits

Git history for the pipe itself
Normalize MCCK first pass earnings2026-04-21 · d0df557
Start MCCK first pass2026-04-21 · 2aeb9a9
Split CAM liquid backing from hard assets2026-04-21 · b2137d0
Start OTB first pass2026-04-21 · d27164c
Stress test HURC working capital discount2026-04-21 · 21438b6
Start HURC first pass2026-04-21 · 260ddda
Clean up CAM.L post-tender book value2026-04-21 · eb98b41
Advance CAM.L book value sanity check2026-04-21 · 4beb244
Advance CAM.L first pass with interim report2026-04-21 · 93e8dc4
Run Q4 2025 13F engine sweep2026-04-21 · 84ee1d5
Track idea provenance through funnel2026-04-21 · 079ec23
Add 13F engine to intake funnel and cadence2026-04-21 · 57b64ca
Extend CAM.L first-pass with book value check2026-04-21 · 1b38c4b
Start first pass on CAM.L2026-04-21 · 7f256ac
Harden Yellowbrick link capture rules2026-04-21 · 2c81dcd
Log Yellowbrick top-50 scavenging outcomes2026-04-21 · 421dec0
Reject Riken Keiki after first pass2026-04-21 · 5803183
Run Yellowbrick bounded scavenging pass2026-04-21 · 67eb291

Opportunity map

Click a name to open the thesis pane