History
Latest
2026-04-22 18:21:25
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2026-04-21 17:18:33
Coverage universe
Pipeline console
Point-in-time view, movement history, and click-through thesis buildout from the canonical markdown files.
Updated 2026-04-22 18:21:25
1. New opportunity
Fresh lead surfaced by the intake engine and kept alive after the sniff test.
2. First pass
The currently active evaluation layer where real company work happens.
3. Full pitch
Graduated out of first pass into real underwriting / pitch status.
4. Dead
Killed, rejected, or noted-but-not-pursued. Not in the active funnel anymore.
Opportunities tracked
38
NEW_OPPORTUNITY: 4, FIRST_PASS: 3, DEAD: 31
Live queue
5
NEW: 4, FIRST_PASS: 1
Intake
34
SOURCE_NOTED: 16, DISCARDED: 10, QUEUED: 8
New intake today
0
Date: 2026-04-22
Movement events
51
Derived from intake, queue, pitch, and research artifacts
Core funnel by stage
Collapsed to the only stages that really matter
NEW OPPORTUNITY
4
CAM.L · Camellia Plc
Hidden agricultural holding with fresh governance reset, real asset sales, and excess cash may be trading at a material discount to underlying value if capital returns become…
rank 1
HURC · Hurco Companies, Inc.
Net-current-asset support may be real even if the source overstated the hidden-real-estate angle, making this a live cyclical asset-backing test rather than a clean compounder.
rank 3
MCCK · Mestek, Inc.
Illiquid HVAC manufacturer with an odd embedded commodities portfolio and family control looks weird enough that sum-of-parts or governance friction could create a real…
rank 4
5915.T · Komaihaltec Inc.
Deep-value asset framing may be overstating realizable value, but the balance-sheet support and explicit downside/risk framing are concrete enough to deserve a real first pass.
rank 5
FIRST PASS
3
OTB.L · On the Beach Group plc
Market may be over-discounting a temporary geopolitical demand shock in a net-cash, asset-light UK online travel platform with strong share gains and buyback capacity.
rank 2
FROG · JFrog
Understandable business and clear claim, but need to check stock comp and true cash quality.
WMS · Advanced Drainage Systems
Holder-cluster lead only. Needs real primary-source work before any opinion.
FULL PITCH
0
Nothing here.
DEAD
31
002380.SZ · Nanjing Sciyon Wisdom Technology Group Co., Ltd.
China growth software at roughly 52x earnings and 15.7x EV/EBITDA is not a value idea just because a newsletter discovered it.
300595.SZ · Autek China Inc.
Incoherent visible framing plus China small-cap growth valuation is an easy kill.
3103.T · Unitika Ltd.
Category is explicitly growth, P/E is about 115.8x, and the teaser is basically AI supply-tightness momentum with pricing-power rhetoric. Wrong funnel.
3793.T · Drecom Co.,Ltd.
Negative P/E, entertainment/game-IP volatility, and summary centered on turnaround hope after a failed title. Too speculative and too hit-driven for the core funnel.
3836.T · Avant Group Corporation
Worth remembering as a niche Japanese software lead, but the visible case is still more quality-growth than mispriced value. Not enough gap yet for queue.
4194.T · Visional, Inc.
Probably a fine company, but this funnel does not need another expensive-enough quality platform with no obvious broken-expectations angle.
7734.T · Riken Keiki Co., Ltd.
Real business, but not a clear value-funnel mispricing. Company IR shows FY2025 net sales of about JPY 49.0bn, operating profit of about JPY 10.6bn, net income of about JPY 8.0bn…
8697.T · Japan Exchange Group, Inc.
Interesting business and real economics, but current visible setup looks more like quality/growth framing than obvious value-funnel mispricing. Worth remembering as a high-quality…
AAGIY · AIA Group Ltd
Too large-cap and too generic from the visible stub to clear the edge bar for this funnel.
ABT · Abbott Laboratories
Too close to generic forum-quality large-cap debate for this funnel. Worthy business maybe, but this specific lead does not clear the edge bar.
ADP · Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
Good business, wrong funnel. Too large-cap, too followed, too obviously quality-compounder-for-a-reason.
ALGT · Allegiant Travel Company
Understandable lead, but airlines start with two strikes in this doctrine. Keep as a source note unless later work surfaces a clearer structural mispricing rather than a standard…
ALLY · Ally Financial Inc.
Q4 2025 13F sweep, Yellowbrick filing page convenience-layer pass. New Berkshire position at ~0.21% weight; smaller Berkshire line so Combs/Weschler caveat applies.
AMKR · Amkor Technology, Inc.
Real business and not absurdly expensive, but the visible stub still reads more like cyclical semiconductor optimism than a clean value dislocation. Keep as a source lead, not a…
AMZN · Amazon.com, Inc.
Q4 2025 13F sweep, convenience-layer pass from Yellowbrick filing pages. Baupost new purchase at 9.28%, Pershing add 65% to a 14.28% weight, Berkshire reduce 100%. Holder-cluster…
BAX · Baxter International Inc.
Real cluster signal, but still not enough for queue on ownership alone. Keep as a holder-cluster lead until primary-source work says the business economics or turnaround angle are…
BN · Brookfield Corporation
Q4 2025 13F sweep, Yellowbrick filing page convenience-layer pass. Cross-manager add cluster, not a queue promotion yet.
CCLD · CareCloud, Inc.
The adjusted EBITDA story held up better than expected, but the capital structure did not. SEC companyfacts show 2025 revenue of about $120.5m, operating income of about $11.3m…
CERT · Certara
Serious-looking writeup, but math looked loose. Good reminder that the subreddit can surface real leads.
CRM · Salesforce, Inc.
Too consensus, too large-cap, and too obviously discussed to clear the edge bar for this funnel from a lightweight Yellowbrick pass.
CROX · Crocs, Inc.
Q4 2025 13F sweep, Yellowbrick filing page convenience-layer pass. New Himalaya position at ~1.51% weight.
CTVA · Corteva, Inc.
Q4 2025 13F sweep, Yellowbrick filing page convenience-layer pass. New Harris position at ~1.39% weight.
KMB / KVUE · Kimberly-Clark / Kenvue merger
Interesting event-driven setup, but this looks more like a special-situations branch than a default core-funnel name right now. Keep the pattern, not the conviction.
META · Meta Platforms, Inc.
Q4 2025 13F sweep, Yellowbrick filing page convenience-layer pass. New Pershing position at ~11.37% portfolio weight, not yet queued pending smell test.
MRP · Millrose Properties Inc.
Worth remembering as a weirdco/source lead, not yet queue-worthy from the visible stub alone.
PLOW · Douglas Dynamics
Good niche business, but current setup looks more like a decent weather-sensitive industrial than a clearly mispriced value idea. After the rebound, valuation appears fair-to-full…
PRDO · Perdoceo Education
Business quality and regulatory risk look too weak for this doctrine.
SPT · Sprout Social
Revenue growth remains real, but the apparent cheapness is flattered by stock-based compensation and dilution. SEC companyfacts show 2025 revenue of about $457.5m, operating loss…
VIRT · Virtu Financial
Quality franchise with real technology and buyback support, but the current setup does not look mispriced enough for the funnel. At roughly ~9.6x TTM earnings, ~1.2x sales, and…
WOOD basket · North American wood products
Interesting industry map, but this is a theme/source lead, not yet a specific queue-worthy company.
WTW · Willis Towers Watson plc
Q4 2025 13F sweep, Yellowbrick filing page convenience-layer pass. Baupost add 25% at 8.45% weight, Harris add 32% at 2.26% weight.
Recent movement
In, out, promoted, rejected, parked, documented
3793.T
2026-04-22
Intake
DISCARDED
Small-cap Japan mobile-gaming turnaround could have been weird enough to check, but the visible setup is still game-hit dependence with author pain rather than a clean mispricing.
3103.T
2026-04-22
Intake
DISCARDED
AI-related glass-fiber framing looked exciting on the stub, but the visible card already screamed thematic growth rerating rather than neglected value.
WTW
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Baupost and Harris both added meaningfully in the same quarter, which is exactly the kind of multi-manager overlap the 13F engine is supposed to surface.
OTB.L
2026-04-21
Queue
FIRST_PASS
force a decision off the 12 May 2026 interim results by comparing actual cash generation and earnings reset versus the withdrawn £39m to £43m FY26 adj PBT range
OTB.L
2026-04-21
Document: 2026 04 21 initial
OTB.L
coverage-universe/companies/OTB.L/first-pass/2026-04-21_initial.md
META
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Pershing opened an 11.37% position, which is too large to ignore and automatically clears the bar for a live conviction-change lead.
MCCK
2026-04-21
Queue
NEW
revisit only if price cheapens materially versus creditable financial-asset backing, management shows cleaner capital-return behavior, or a governance/control event creates a believable minority-holder realization path
MCCK
2026-04-21
Document: 2026 04 21 initial
MCCK
coverage-universe/companies/MCCK/first-pass/2026-04-21_initial.md
HURC
2026-04-21
Queue
NEW
revisit if inventory begins shrinking cleanly while orders and margins stabilize, if buybacks restart at a still-depressed price, or if the stock cheapens materially versus harder finished-goods haircuts
HURC
2026-04-21
Document: 2026 04 21 initial
HURC
coverage-universe/companies/HURC/first-pass/2026-04-21_initial.md
CTVA
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Harris opened a filtered Tier 2 new position above the weight floor, which is exactly the kind of diversified-manager entry the engine is supposed to catch.
CROX
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Himalaya opened a new position, which is automatically interesting given Li Lu's concentrated roster and low turnover.
CAM.L
2026-04-21
Queue
NEW
revisit if FY2025 underlying operating performance improves without disposal help, if VEP asset sales/capital returns continue while excess liquidity remains clear, or if the discount to liquid-asset backing widens materially again
CAM.L
2026-04-21
Document: 2026 04 21 initial
CAM.L
coverage-universe/companies/CAM.L/first-pass/2026-04-21_initial.md
BN
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Pershing added 50% and Akre added 40% in the same quarter, which is the kind of cross-manager reinforcement worth preserving even without a fresh new-position flag.
AMZN
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Baupost opened a large new position while Pershing added aggressively in the same quarter, with Berkshire simultaneously fully exiting, which makes this a real high-signal disagreement rather than ordinary 13F noise.
AMKR
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Packaging-and-test exposure plus AI/advanced-packaging framing could matter if the market is still anchoring to a cyclical trough.
ALLY
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Berkshire opened a new position, which matters even at a small visible weight because new Berkshire lines are rare and worth triaging.
ADP
2026-04-21
Intake
DISCARDED
High-quality payroll compounder showed up with steady-growth framing, but that is exactly the sort of thing everyone with a spreadsheet already knows.
7734.T
2026-04-21
Resolved queue
REJECTED
Real business, but not a clear value-funnel mispricing. Company IR shows FY2025 net sales of about JPY 49.0bn, operating profit of about JPY 10.6bn, net income of about JPY 8.0bn, year-end cash of about JPY 19.0bn, and equity ratio of about 83.5%, with 9M FY2026 sales up about 13.8% and operating profit up about 4.8%. The problem is price, not quality: Yahoo chart data showed the stock around JPY 3,380, which implies roughly ~1.9x book on FY2025 net assets per share of JPY 1,787 and about ~19.6x FY2025 EPS of JPY 172. Even after giving credit for the net cash, this still looks more like a deservedly premium niche industrial than a broken-expectations value setup.
7734.T
2026-04-21
Intake
QUEUED
Japanese gas-detection niche with service/maintenance mix, clean balance sheet, and a still-reasonable multiple looked like the only top-card name with actual value-funnel potential instead of generic quality growth.
4194.T
2026-04-21
Intake
DISCARDED
Japan recruiting-platform story had decent visible economics, but the setup looked like another straightforward growth rerating argument.
3836.T
2026-04-21
Intake
SOURCE_NOTED
Japanese consolidation/accounting software with recurring revenue and governance tailwinds looked economically attractive on the stub.
300595.SZ
2026-04-21
Intake
DISCARDED
Card showed healthcare optics in company info and industrial motor language in the summary, which is not a great sign before the work even starts.
Recent funnel commits
Git history for the pipe itself
Collapse dashboard funnel to core stages
2026-04-22 · f35379f
Refine OTB first-pass decision criteria
2026-04-22 · b531f88
Defer HURC after inventory quality pressure test
2026-04-22 · de1a277
Log Yellowbrick heartbeat triage pass
2026-04-22 · fad5cec
Force CAM.L queue decision to deferred
2026-04-22 · bb562e3
Tighten CAM.L surplus-liquidity view
2026-04-22 · 1202840
Defer MCCK after governance realizability check
2026-04-22 · 05e0715
Normalize MCCK first pass earnings
2026-04-21 · d0df557
Start MCCK first pass
2026-04-21 · 2aeb9a9
Split CAM liquid backing from hard assets
2026-04-21 · b2137d0
Start OTB first pass
2026-04-21 · d27164c
Stress test HURC working capital discount
2026-04-21 · 21438b6
Start HURC first pass
2026-04-21 · 260ddda
Clean up CAM.L post-tender book value
2026-04-21 · eb98b41
Advance CAM.L book value sanity check
2026-04-21 · 4beb244
Advance CAM.L first pass with interim report
2026-04-21 · 93e8dc4
Run Q4 2025 13F engine sweep
2026-04-21 · 84ee1d5
Track idea provenance through funnel
2026-04-21 · 079ec23
Opportunity map
Click a name for the side pane, or open the full company page